Stranded in Kuril Islands

Congrats on making the merge AND surviving your first tribal council on Matua!

Making the merge is a big deal in stranded. This is where you'll cement yourself as an all time great, or an all time goat. The choice is yours :) Enjoy your weekend and getting to know the rest of your cast that made this milestone with you! We'll be checking in periodically to ask you more questions as we think of them

1-Now that you're reunited with tribe mates who swapped onto the other tribe, what is your plan? Are you more loyal to OG tribal alliances, or have you made better connections post swap?

2-What kind of game are you looking to play here at merge? the social butterfly? the cool headed strategist? challenge beast? what do you think best suits your personality to make the end?

3- Merge councils are known for their unpredictability, huge moves and dramas, do you anticipate having to confront fellow tribe mates if your neck is on the line?

4-Are you having fun?

Danni Boatwright wrote: ↑Thu Feb 20, 2020 10:17:31 pm Congrats on making the merge AND surviving your first tribal council on Matua!

Making the merge is a big deal in stranded. This is where you'll cement yourself as an all time great, or an all time goat. The choice is yours :) Enjoy your weekend and getting to know the rest of your cast that made this milestone with you! We'll be checking in periodically to ask you more questions as we think of them

1-Now that you're reunited with tribe mates who swapped onto the other tribe, what is your plan? Are you more loyal to OG tribal alliances, or have you made better connections post swap?

2-What kind of game are you looking to play here at merge? the social butterfly? the cool headed strategist? challenge beast? what do you think best suits your personality to make the end?

3- Merge councils are known for their unpredictability, huge moves and dramas, do you anticipate having to confront fellow tribe mates if your neck is on the line?

4-Are you having fun?

1. I'm super stoked to be back with Michelle and Lauren. They are still my two besties and I think I can still trust them as much as before the swap. However, Susie and I got a lot closer after the swap so I think that is a strong alliance too.

2. I think the merge is a good way to check myself. I've definitely made some mistakes. Going forward, I want to be balanced and a little bit of each "character" without being a big threat, but I am not sure how to best do that yet. I still think it's important to be strengthening the relationships I have around me.

3. I will absolutely do whatever I have to do in tribal if my neck is on the line. I hope I don't need to do that, of course, but all the more fun for you to watch!

4. Yeah, I am genuinely having fun. I feel better making it to the merge with a majority; hopefully I can last long enough to make some sort of impression on Stranded. This is a really cool game, and I'm continually thankful for the opportunity to play.

Does anyone want to run numbers with me? Enjoy the strategic game and playing probabilities? Just me? Okay... ARG.

I mean, we would be highly entertained if you did, we can't do it WITH you but we can prompt you :D

What are the numbesr and what do you feel like your probabilities of making it deep are?

Jeff Probst wrote: ↑Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:36:33 am I mean, we would be highly entertained if you did, we can't do it WITH you but we can prompt you :D

What are the numbesr and what do you feel like your probabilities of making it deep are?

Right now I think its me, Michelle, Lauren in the core. Reem seems genuine to work with us. I need to catch up with Susie but she seems solid too. I have Chris, Devens and it sounds like Michelle has Charlie. Susie has Randy. Unsure votes are Ron, Matty, and Gillian because that lady is crazy. Obvious outsider is Eric. That gives us a 9-4 advantage. Let’s say Devens flips, that’s still 8-5. As long as either Randy or Charlie pulls through, worst case scenario is 7-6.

Odds Eric goes home tonight: 9-1

Not too much with change next vote except the target. I think Ron or Devens are obvious choices. I still think its too early to do anything crazy. Hopefully I can secure my core alliance with Lauren, Michelle, Chris, Reem, Susie. Again, possibly Randy and/or Charlie there.

Odds Ron and Devens go after Eric: 7-3

Somewhere in there is Gillian. I’d argue her to go home in the next three votes because of her unpredictability.

Odds Gilly goes within that group of three: 1-1

Odds of getting to the final 8: About 63%*, which is reasonable in Stranded. This is a realistic goal.

After that, there are so many scenarios that it gets hard to figure the odds. Reem is super chill now but I see her going after me at some point. She will probably get Susie and Randy on board. Maybe Gilly if we don’t get rid of her.

I think Chris is the most loyal person I have at this point and someone I could take to the end and beat. I think Lauren is my biggest competition, which is tricky since she is one of my closest allies. I wouldn’t be surprised if she felt that way about me.

Alright, I gotta get back to real life. The only problem with Stranded is that we aren’t all on an island with no other distractions.


*The accuracy of my chances are predicated by the accuracy of my odd making. So really, the chance listed is one factor of uncertainty, roughly speaking, away from the actual result.

Aurora wrote: ↑Sun Feb 23, 2020 10:29:15 am

Jeff Probst wrote: ↑Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:36:33 am I mean, we would be highly entertained if you did, we can't do it WITH you but we can prompt you :D

What are the numbesr and what do you feel like your probabilities of making it deep are?

Right now I think its me, Michelle, Lauren in the core. Reem seems genuine to work with us. I need to catch up with Susie but she seems solid too. I have Chris, Devens and it sounds like Michelle has Charlie. Susie has Randy. Unsure votes are Ron, Matty, and Gillian because that lady is crazy. Obvious outsider is Eric. That gives us a 9-4 advantage. Let’s say Devens flips, that’s still 8-5. As long as either Randy or Charlie pulls through, worst case scenario is 7-6.

Odds Eric goes home tonight: 9-1

Not too much with change next vote except the target. I think Ron or Devens are obvious choices. I still think its too early to do anything crazy. Hopefully I can secure my core alliance with Lauren, Michelle, Chris, Reem, Susie. Again, possibly Randy and/or Charlie there.

Odds Ron and Devens go after Eric: 7-3

Somewhere in there is Gillian. I’d argue her to go home in the next three votes because of her unpredictability.

Odds Gilly goes within that group of three: 1-1

Odds of getting to the final 8: About 63%*, which is reasonable in Stranded. This is a realistic goal.

After that, there are so many scenarios that it gets hard to figure the odds. Reem is super chill now but I see her going after me at some point. She will probably get Susie and Randy on board. Maybe Gilly if we don’t get rid of her.

I think Chris is the most loyal person I have at this point and someone I could take to the end and beat. I think Lauren is my biggest competition, which is tricky since she is one of my closest allies. I wouldn’t be surprised if she felt that way about me.

Alright, I gotta get back to real life. The only problem with Stranded is that we aren’t all on an island with no other distractions.


*The accuracy of my chances are predicated by the accuracy of my odd making. So really, the chance listed is one factor of uncertainty, roughly speaking, away from the actual result.

This reminds me of the time I failed stats class back in high school

Ziggy Lichman wrote: ↑Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:29:30 pm

Aurora wrote: ↑Sun Feb 23, 2020 10:29:15 am

Jeff Probst wrote: ↑Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:36:33 am I mean, we would be highly entertained if you did, we can't do it WITH you but we can prompt you :D

What are the numbesr and what do you feel like your probabilities of making it deep are?

Alright, I gotta get back to real life. The only problem with Stranded is that we aren’t all on an island with no other distractions.


*The accuracy of my chances are predicated by the accuracy of my odd making. So really, the chance listed is one factor of uncertainty, roughly speaking, away from the actual result.

This reminds me of the time I failed stats class back in high school

obviously neither of you watched "statistics" by Timothee Chalamet. let me educate you

Danni Boatwright wrote: ↑Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:18:56 pm

Ziggy Lichman wrote: ↑Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:29:30 pm

Aurora wrote: ↑Sun Feb 23, 2020 10:29:15 am

Alright, I gotta get back to real life. The only problem with Stranded is that we aren’t all on an island with no other distractions.


*The accuracy of my chances are predicated by the accuracy of my odd making. So really, the chance listed is one factor of uncertainty, roughly speaking, away from the actual result.

This reminds me of the time I failed stats class back in high school

obviously neither of you watched "statistics" by Timothee Chalamet. let me educate you

I feel sad I wasted 2 and a half minutes of my life...

PS everything I said is already trash haha. But it was fun to think about!